The ShiftThe policy floor under heat pump demand is now a statutory one
The Clean Heat Market Mechanism came into force on 1 April 2025, and it changes the nature of the demand a buyer is underwriting. Boiler manufacturers above the thresholds of 20,000 gas or 1,000 oil appliances a year now carry a target equivalent to 6% of their relevant fossil boiler sales in heat pumps, with a payment due for each credit they fall short by. That obligation sits with manufacturers rather than with installers, which is exactly why it matters to an installer.
A manufacturer with a statutory target has a direct commercial interest in installers being available to fit the product. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme sits underneath that, providing a £7,500 grant towards an air source or ground source heat pump in England and Wales, and it is only accessible through an MCS certified installer. Between them, the two create a demand line that does not depend on a homeowner's enthusiasm in any given quarter.
None of this makes gas work obsolete and I would not write it as if it did. Boilers will be serviced, repaired and replaced for many years yet, and the service book built on them is real income. The point is narrower: a buyer valuing your business in 2025 is pricing an asset they expect to hold into the 2030s, and they are asking what proportion of your revenue is exposed to a heating technology whose replacement has a legislated demand floor under it.
The ReadCapability is read as evidence, not as intention
What an acquirer looks for is not a view about the energy transition. It is MCS accreditation held by the business, engineers with the relevant training completed rather than booked, and a number of installations actually commissioned. One certified installer and four heat pumps commissioned last year is a different proposition from a business that intends to get accredited, even where the intention is entirely genuine.
The reason is that the accreditation takes time and the training takes longer, and a buyer who has to do it after completion is buying a project rather than a business. Where a firm already holds MCS and has commissioned work under it, the acquirer inherits a route into grant-funded demand from day one. That is the thing being paid for, and it is worth saying plainly that it is a small number of engineers and a modest number of jobs that create it.
The reverse also holds, and it is the harder thing to hear. A well-run, profitable, gas-only business with a strong service book is still a well-run, profitable business, and it will sell. What it will not attract is the buyer who was going to pay the top of the range, because that buyer is assembling a platform with a ten-year horizon and is pricing what the book looks like at the end of it.
The WindowTwo years is enough time, and two months is not
If you are two or three years from wanting out, this is a window where preparation pays. Getting one or two engineers through heat pump training and the business through MCS accreditation is a twelve to eighteen month exercise done properly, and it produces something a buyer can verify: certificates, commissioned installations, a handful of customers on the low carbon side of the book. That evidence cannot be assembled after an approach.
If you are closer than that, the honest advice is to stop worrying about it. A business six months from a sale does not become a heat pump specialist in time to be paid for it, and the attempt shows up in diligence as cost without revenue. Put the effort into the contracted service book, the certification file and the records instead, all of which convert into price faster.
The one thing worth doing at any distance from a sale is knowing which way your own numbers are pointing. What share of last year's installation revenue was gas replacement, what share was anything else, and what has happened to that ratio over three years. A buyer will ask. Owners who have the answer in front of them sound like people who run their business deliberately, which is its own kind of premium.
A business six months from a sale does not become a heat pump specialist in time to be paid for it.
Know Your Own Numbers
If the question is what all this does to your own position, start with the number. The valuation tool here gives a confidential range based on the shape of your income rather than turnover alone.
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