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For years, heat pump capability was a bet on the future. As of 2026, it is a track record. That shift changes how a buyer reads your business, and it is one of the four forces in our September market briefing. The headline number tells the story.

A Quarter of a Million Installs

In February 2026, MCS announced that the UK had passed 250,000 certified heat pump installations. 2025 was the strongest year on record, and the Boiler Upgrade Scheme funded 43 per cent of that year's installs. This is no longer an emerging market that might arrive. It is a market that has demonstrably arrived, with a quarter of a million certified jobs behind it.

The reason that matters for valuation is subtle but important. It changes what capability signals to a buyer. Two or three years ago, heat pump accreditation told a buyer you were positioned for a future that had not yet paid off. Today, against a backdrop of proven national volume, demonstrated installation activity tells a buyer you are already earning in a market that is scaling.

Capability Plus Volume Is a Different Proposition

Accreditation alone says you could do the work. Volume says you have done it, repeatedly, to a certified standard. Those are not the same thing to an acquirer, and the gap between them is often the gap between an average multiple and a strong one.

Accreditation tells a buyer you can do the work. A record of completed, certified installs tells them you already do, and that is worth more.

A business with a genuine history of accredited installations is bringing a buyer proof rather than potential. In a market where every consolidator is trying to add heat pump capability, proof is scarce and it commands a premium.

The Scarcity on the Supply Side

What makes that proof valuable is how few businesses can offer it. Parliamentary evidence puts the number of trained MCS heat pump installers at roughly 9,000, against government modelling that suggests around 50,200 will be needed by 2030. Meanwhile the conventional workforce is ageing: Gas Safe's own decade review put the average age of registered engineers at just over 45.

A business that has already done the hard part, building a certified team and racking up completed, accredited installations, holds something a buyer cannot simply purchase off a shelf or recruit at short notice. In a skills-short market, an assembled, certified, productive team is frequently the single most valuable line in a buyer's model.

What This Means for Your Timing

The volume you install and service this heating season adds to your own track record inside a national market that has already proven itself. When a buyer models your business, demonstrated MCS activity across a stable, certified team is not a line they discount. It is often the line that decides where in the range your offer lands.

The market has stopped asking whether heat pumps are real. It is now asking who can actually do the work. If your business can answer that with a documented record of certified installs and a team to match, you are holding exactly what the current market is short of. The task between now and any sale is simply to make sure that record is visible, complete and easy for a buyer to verify.